Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Wednesday 22 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 45229 (+2746) 817187 (+25111) 82860 (+10913) 689098 (+11452)
Italy 24648 (+534) 183957 (+2729) 51600 (+2723) 107709 (-528)
Spain 21282 (+430) 204178 (+3968) 82514 (+1927) 100382 (+1611)
France 20796 (+531) 158050 (+2667) 39181 (+1772) 98073 (+364)
United Kingdom 17337 (+828) 129044 (+4301) 0 (+0) 111707 (+3473)
Belgium 5998 (+170) 40956 (+973) 9002 (+107) 25956 (+696)
Iran 5297 (+88) 84802 (+1297) 60965 (+1692) 18540 (-483)
Germany 5033 (+171) 148291 (+1226) 95200 (+3700) 48058 (-2645)
China 4632 (+0) 82758 (+11) 77123 (+39) 1003 (-28)
Netherlands 3916 (+165) 34134 (+729) 0 (-250) 30218 (+814)
Brazil 2741 (+154) 43079 (+2336) 22991 (+861) 17347 (+1321)
Turkey 2259 (+119) 95591 (+4611) 14918 (+1488) 78414 (+3004)
Canada 1833 (+143) 38422 (+1593) 13143 (+557) 23446 (+893)
Sweden 1765 (+185) 15322 (+545) 550 (+0) 13007 (+360)
Switzerland 1478 (+49) 28063 (+119) 19400 (+800) 7185 (-730)
Portugal 762 (+27) 21379 (+516) 917 (+307) 19700 (+182)
Ireland 730 (+43) 16040 (+388) 9233 (+9156) 6077 (-8811)
Mexico 712 (+26) 8772 (+511) 2627 (+0) 5433 (+485)
India 645 (+53) 20080 (+1541) 3975 (+702) 15460 (+786)
Indonesia 616 (+26) 7135 (+375) 842 (+95) 5677 (+254)
Ecuador 520 (+13) 10398 (+270) 1207 (+57) 8671 (+200)
Romania 498 (+20) 9242 (+306) 2153 (+136) 6591 (+150)
Austria 491 (+21) 14873 (+78) 10971 (+340) 3411 (-283)
Peru 484 (+39) 17837 (+1512) 6982 (+14) 10371 (+1459)
Russia 456 (+51) 52763 (+5642) 3873 (+427) 48434 (+5164)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 172661 (+6956) 2470677 (+74477) 610922 (+42571)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 174802 ( +4611) 2443965 ( +43756) 619068 ( +22618)
Thu 23 April 2020 179031 ( +4229) 2483595 ( +39630) 640189 ( +21121)
Fri 24 April 2020 182888 ( +3857) 2519353 ( +35758) 659773 ( +19584)
Sat 25 April 2020 186389 ( +3501) 2551508 ( +32155) 677812 ( +18039)
Sun 26 April 2020 189552 ( +3163) 2580334 ( +28826) 694328 ( +16516)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 4632 (+0) 82758 (+11) 77123 (+39)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 3468 ( +0) 81377 ( +0) 76661 ( +8)
Thu 23 April 2020 3468 ( +0) 81377 ( +0) 76668 ( +7)
Fri 24 April 2020 3468 ( +0) 81377 ( +0) 76674 ( +6)
Sat 25 April 2020 3468 ( +0) 81377 ( +0) 76679 ( +5)
Sun 26 April 2020 3468 ( +0) 81377 ( +0) 76683 ( +4)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 21282 (+430) 204178 (+3968) 82514 (+1927)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 20611 ( +131) 195713 ( +1117) 80860 ( +816)
Thu 23 April 2020 20722 ( +111) 196672 ( +960) 81545 ( +686)
Fri 24 April 2020 20816 ( +94) 197495 ( +823) 82120 ( +574)
Sat 25 April 2020 20895 ( +79) 198199 ( +704) 82600 ( +480)
Sun 26 April 2020 20962 ( +67) 198802 ( +602) 83000 ( +400)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 24648 (+534) 183957 (+2729) 51600 (+2723)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 23636 ( +169) 176747 ( +1012) 51120 ( +1440)
Thu 23 April 2020 23785 ( +149) 177645 ( +899) 52486 ( +1366)
Fri 24 April 2020 23917 ( +132) 178443 ( +797) 53776 ( +1290)
Sat 25 April 2020 24032 ( +116) 179149 ( +706) 54990 ( +1214)
Sun 26 April 2020 24134 ( +102) 179773 ( +625) 56127 ( +1137)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 17337 (+828) 129044 (+4301) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 17293 ( +382) 129368 ( +3098) 116 ( +2)
Thu 23 April 2020 17621 ( +327) 132149 ( +2781) 117 ( +2)
Fri 24 April 2020 17900 ( +279) 134631 ( +2482) 119 ( +2)
Sat 25 April 2020 18136 ( +237) 136836 ( +2205) 121 ( +2)
Sun 26 April 2020 18336 ( +200) 138785 ( +1949) 123 ( +2)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 45229 (+2746) 817187 (+25111) 82860 (+10913)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 47123 ( +1987) 805048 ( +14072) 87063 ( +5564)
Thu 23 April 2020 48935 ( +1812) 817412 ( +12364) 92487 ( +5424)
Fri 24 April 2020 50571 ( +1636) 828226 ( +10814) 97715 ( +5229)
Sat 25 April 2020 52035 ( +1464) 837647 ( +9421) 102703 ( +4987)
Sun 26 April 2020 53334 ( +1299) 845827 ( +8180) 107411 ( +4709)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 20796 (+531) 158050 (+2667) 39181 (+1772)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 20668 ( +299) 159049 ( +1191) 48710 ( +3446)
Thu 23 April 2020 20923 ( +255) 160058 ( +1009) 52419 ( +3709)
Fri 24 April 2020 21139 ( +216) 160911 ( +853) 56410 ( +3991)
Sat 25 April 2020 21322 ( +183) 161632 ( +720) 60705 ( +4295)
Sun 26 April 2020 21476 ( +154) 162239 ( +607) 65327 ( +4622)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 5033 (+171) 148291 (+1226) 95200 (+3700)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 5032 ( +118) 145004 ( +714) 94748 ( +1904)
Thu 23 April 2020 5136 ( +104) 145614 ( +610) 96394 ( +1646)
Fri 24 April 2020 5227 ( +91) 146135 ( +521) 97809 ( +1415)
Sat 25 April 2020 5306 ( +79) 146578 ( +444) 99020 ( +1210)
Sun 26 April 2020 5375 ( +69) 146956 ( +378) 100051 ( +1031)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 3916 (+165) 34134 (+729) 0 (-250)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 3803 ( +53) 33588 ( +493) 240 ( +0)
Thu 23 April 2020 3849 ( +46) 34031 ( +444) 240 ( +0)
Fri 24 April 2020 3889 ( +40) 34429 ( +398) 240 ( +0)
Sat 25 April 2020 3924 ( +35) 34785 ( +356) 240 ( +0)
Sun 26 April 2020 3953 ( +30) 35102 ( +317) 240 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 5998 (+170) 40956 (+973) 9002 (+107)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 6165 ( +155) 40220 ( +636) 8992 ( +140)
Thu 23 April 2020 6299 ( +134) 40786 ( +566) 9113 ( +121)
Fri 24 April 2020 6414 ( +115) 41289 ( +503) 9216 ( +103)
Sat 25 April 2020 6512 ( +98) 41734 ( +445) 9304 ( +88)
Sun 26 April 2020 6595 ( +83) 42126 ( +393) 9379 ( +75)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 1765 (+185) 15322 (+545) 550 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 1751 ( +60) 15477 ( +393) 580 ( +11)
Thu 23 April 2020 1805 ( +54) 15845 ( +368) 589 ( +9)
Fri 24 April 2020 1853 ( +48) 16189 ( +343) 596 ( +7)
Sat 25 April 2020 1896 ( +43) 16508 ( +319) 603 ( +6)
Sun 26 April 2020 1934 ( +38) 16804 ( +296) 608 ( +5)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 401 (+21) 9856 (+263) 1297 (+164)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 402 ( +11) 9769 ( +204) 1342 ( +86)
Thu 23 April 2020 411 ( +9) 9952 ( +183) 1421 ( +79)
Fri 24 April 2020 419 ( +8) 10116 ( +164) 1492 ( +71)
Sat 25 April 2020 426 ( +7) 10262 ( +146) 1555 ( +63)
Sun 26 April 2020 432 ( +6) 10392 ( +130) 1611 ( +55)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 1478 (+49) 28063 (+119) 19400 (+800)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 1441 ( +17) 27344 ( +77) 18554 ( +240)
Thu 23 April 2020 1456 ( +14) 27409 ( +66) 18753 ( +199)
Fri 24 April 2020 1468 ( +12) 27465 ( +56) 18917 ( +164)
Sat 25 April 2020 1479 ( +11) 27512 ( +47) 19052 ( +135)
Sun 26 April 2020 1488 ( +9) 27552 ( +40) 19163 ( +111)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 5297 (+88) 84802 (+1297) 60965 (+1692)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 5150 ( +38) 84789 ( +828) 65276 ( +2187)
Thu 23 April 2020 5184 ( +34) 85542 ( +753) 67361 ( +2085)
Fri 24 April 2020 5215 ( +31) 86224 ( +683) 69340 ( +1979)
Sat 25 April 2020 5242 ( +27) 86843 ( +619) 71208 ( +1868)
Sun 26 April 2020 5267 ( +25) 87402 ( +559) 72964 ( +1756)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.